What Colin Kaepernick is truly worth

Before Colin Kaepernick’s first step into NFL big-money in 2015, the rumors were already swirling regarding his questionable attitude, maturity and ability to win from the pocket. The apprehensions were justified as too often the signal-caller would be seen pouting on the sideline — alone — and consistently looked wonky in drop-back situations while posting his highest interception percentage in 2014.

To combat said concerns Kaepernick spent time with former NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion Kurt Warner to learn the game from the pocket and to reportedly become more at peace with himself.

It’s safe to say now that it did not work.

What Warner had to say at the time when being remotely brought onto the NFL Network while training the University of Nevada product before the 2015 season should have raised more concerns than it did to the ardent analyst who listened closely. In discussing the uber-athletic QB, Warner expressed concerns regarding his ability to process fast enough as all “quarterbacks need to do at this level” and even went so far as to state that this quality was “unteachable.”

What the San Francisco 49ers were able to effectively do early in Kaepernick’s starting stint in the NFL was scheme out this shortcoming via: QB rushes, option looks and one-to-two read predetermined passes. However, as the league always does, it evolved and caught up with these schemes and Kaepernick was left in the all-to-familiar position that all starting QBs find themselves in if they wish to be effective long-term in the NFL: having to win from the pocket.

That was something he failed miserably at. To the point where he was benched for the quarterback with the worst (at the time) QBR in all of football over the last 10 years in Blaine Gabbert.

Kaepernick has reportedly met with Denver Broncos general manager John Elway at least twice, with one meeting being held at Elway’s house per The Denver Post. The Broncos are the only team showing legitimate interest in Kaepernick at this point, leaving them in a unique position of patience and leverage.

Per NFL Network’s Ian Rapaport,  Denver is only willing to pay $7 million of Kaepernick’s salary in any trade, which would leave the 49ers in a position to pay roughly $7 million themselves when it’s all said-and-done before working out any trade. Something San Francisco doesn’t want either.

The limited interest in the fifth-year QB (who will be 29 years old in 2016) has left many fans and analysts scrambling to assign a defined value to Kaepernick. In order to appropriately do so, let’s take a look at what the numbers tell us about the 6’4″, 225-pound veteran.

Per Profootballfocus.com (PFF), Kaepernick graded out as the 38th-best (out of 39) quarterback in 2015 their ranking behind the likes of: Johnny Manziel, Nick Foles, Ryan Mallett, Matt Cassell and the shell of Peyton Manning. Further, when the grades are broken down to pass and run values, Kaepernick only beat Manziel and Andrew Luck in 2015 (by less than two points) in passing, while being worse than every other quarterback in the league in each category, respectively.

Overall, his PFF grade of 48.6 put Kaepernick squarely at the very bottom rung of the site’s grading system, where a grade between 0-59 nets a QB the attribution of a “replaceable” player.

Football Outsiders (FO) has their own grading system for assessing the value of quarterbacks. Unfortunately their analytics don’t paint any prettier of a picture on the state of Kaepernick’s game.

FO generally uses two different proprietary statistics to rank every player in the NFL: DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, and DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

DYAR is loosely defined as “the value of the quarterback’s performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage;” while DVOA is stated to be a “number [which] represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating (percentage), the better the player’s performance.”

Kaepernick’s -179 DYAR yards were third-worst in the NFL for qualifying starters ahead of only Foles and P. Manning. However, given his limited playing time it’s more than fair to compare him to QBs who missed out on being classified as ‘starters’ such as: TJ Yates (17 DYAR), Jimmy Clausen (5 DYAR), Kellen Moore (10 DYAR), Alex Tanney (3 DYAR), Josh Freeman (-70 DYAR) and Matt Schaub (-146 DYAR). Each of whom finished with more adjusted yards than the formerly prized QB despite having dramatically less playing time.

When looking at DVOA, the numbers are equally ugly as Kapernick finished with a -21.4 percent, or worse than Luck, Manziel and every other QB in the NFL apart from three bottom-dwellers.

Despite what some fans may feel about his talents, of course the Broncos are in absolutely no rush to absorb Kaepernick’s hefty contract. Perhaps The Denver Post’s Troy Renck put it best on Twitter Monday night with his tweet: “Kaepernick is [a] fluid situation. Broncos have Sanchez. They can be patient if [they] choose. They are determined, but not desperate.”

The much-maligned Mark Sanchez (whom Renck alluded to) actually finished 2015 with a PFF grade of 69.4, or right on the cusp of the site’s starter range (which starts at 70). This 2015 grade was over 21 points higher than Kaepernick’s — so it makes absolutely no sense for the Broncos to bend over backwards to get a player like No. 7.

Ultimately, the 49ers will likely have to eat some of Kaepernick’s contract to move him. Indeed, the man who once was regarded as one of the NFL’s most promising up-and-coming stars, has almost definitively become a liability given his bloated price-tag and sub-par play.

Although new 49ers head coach Chip Kelly’s system seems (in theory) like a match made in heaven, it’s obvious the veteran QB doesn’t want to be in the Bay Area anymore. Further, the team seems resigned to this fact as they were reported as working out Michigan State’s Connor Cook Saturday per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

There’s not many things in life that exposes a man for what he is like being an NFL QB. Unfortunately, for Kaepernick (and his fans) that’s an onion that may have been better left un-peeled.

Will Reeve is a podcaster and writer for Today’s Pigskin, you can follow him on Twitter @WillReeveJr or connect with him on Facebook.

The post What Colin Kaepernick is truly worth appeared first on Today's Pigskin.