Forget the fact that the 2014 NFL Draft didn’t turn up much production. Ignore the fact that the 2015 draft didn’t go much better. New San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly has to be singularly focused on the draft that’s in front of him and despite the fact that he no longer has roster control, these 12 picks will likely determine his future.
In an era where pick accumulation can right a lot of wrongs (it’s a process, but it’s one teams like the Patriots, Ravens and Seahawks have proven works), the 49ers own the most picks in the entire league. And considering they might also have the league’s worst roster, their success rate will be paramount.
The 49ers own just your standard pick-per-round in the first three spins, but they acquired four compensatory picks and three additional picks via trade during the draft’s final four rounds. Their ability to help fill out a 53-man roster with reliable depth in the later rounds will likely set the pace for how quickly they can turn this franchise around.
Because while nobody expects a host of fourth, fifth and sixth-round picks to turn into All-Pro after All-Pro, finding NFL-caliber talent that you can build depth with in a cost-effective manner frees up capital to invest in areas of need. Like quarterback, cornerback and defensive end–all high-priced positions where you need star power.
There’s a rumor floating around New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson would like to play for the 49ers and that’s intriguing because general manager Trent Baalke has the firepower and the cap space to make that trade and lock him up right now. And that very well may happen, but it probably shouldn’t.
As great of a player as Wilkerson is, the 49ers’ roster is so depleted that it must hold on to picks. Because digging yourself out of the 5-11 sized-hole (and still digging) that they’re in requires that they build around cheap labor and spend on homegrown talent they can trust.
Wilkerson is great, and he’s only 26, but he’s looking for somewhere between $80 and $100 million in total value and his cap hit will probably exceed $15 million on average. And by the time this roster is ready to take advantage of his skills, he’ll be in his late-20s. And in this league, there’s no guarantee they’ll be there anymore.
The more prudent thing to do right now is draft and develop. That’s where Kelly comes in. That’s what should make the 49ers nervous.
Kelly didn’t have a ton of time to “develop”, but in the past three draft classes in Philadelphia, he didn’t manage to get much out of his late-round picks. Several early picks made contributions, going back to the 2013 draft when they snagged Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz and Bennie Logan, but of the 12 players he took in rounds four through seven, two have been frequent contributors: DT Beau Allen and DB Jordan Poyer.
The success rate league-wide on late-round picks isn’t extremely high, which is understandable, but if the 49ers are going to make good on this draft in particular it better be a helluva lot better than 17 percent.
And so Baalke is going to flood the 49ers’ training camp with fresh bodies. And it will be Kelly’s responsibility to get something out of them.
Now, that’s not particularly fair to Kelly–and Baalke will be held equally responsible if they fail–but that comes with the territory. And so Kelly will need to be all-in on the 2016 draft.
Past drafts and personnel decisions did him in while he was in Philadelphia, but San Francisco and their 12 picks offer him another chance. Find a handful of starting-caliber players and eight or nine kids worthy of making the roster and he’ll be well on his way. Fail to find a way to make something out of that slew of late-round picks and he’ll likely be sulking back to college in the next few years.
The post 49ers need Chip Kelly to hit the ground running with 12 draft picks appeared first on Today's Pigskin.